Match details. Serie D, Group F. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
Form. FC Vigor Senigallia have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L D W. Ancona-Matelica have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D W D.
The numbers. FC Vigor Senigallia score two and concede 1.6 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. FC Vigor Senigallia average 1.0 corners and 1.0 cards a game. Ancona-Matelica score 1.4 and concede 0.4 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets. Ancona-Matelica average 5.0 corners and 7.0 cards a game.
The case against. Ancona-Matelica's record still gives them 36% to win.
The read. FC Vigor Senigallia to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make FC Vigor Senigallia the likelier winners; FC Vigor Senigallia are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 52%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: FC Vigor Senigallia 2-1 Ancona-Matelica (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).