Match details. Serie D, Group G. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 14:30 Lagos time.
Form. Citta Di Anagni have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D W W. Paganese Calcio have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D L L.
The numbers. Citta Di Anagni score 1.8 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Citta Di Anagni average 6.0 corners and 1.0 cards a game. Paganese Calcio score two and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Paganese Calcio average 12.0 shots (4.0 on target), 2.7 corners and 2.0 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 69%.
The case against. Citta Di Anagni's record still gives them 38% to win.
The read. Paganese Calcio to win. Paganese Calcio are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Paganese Calcio.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Citta Di Anagni 0-1 Paganese Calcio (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).