Match details. Serie D, Group E. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 14:30 Lagos time.
Form. SCD Progresso have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L. Ternana Calcio have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D W D.
The numbers. SCD Progresso score 0.9 and concede 1.9 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and five games without a goal. SCD Progresso average 6.0 shots (2.7 on target), 4.7 corners and 1.7 cards a game. Ternana Calcio score 1.9 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Ternana Calcio average 10.5 shots (3.8 on target), 4.0 corners and 1.5 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 65%.
The case against. SCD Progresso's record still gives them 24% to win.
The read. Ternana Calcio to win. Ternana Calcio are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Ternana Calcio.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: SCD Progresso 0-1 Ternana Calcio (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).