Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 1. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time.
Form. CD Boiro have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten league games, 2.0 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W W L D W. Gran Pena FC have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten league games, 1.6 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L L W L D.
The numbers. CD Boiro score 1.7 and concede one a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. CD Boiro average 6.8 shots (4.0 on target), 5.4 corners and 1.6 cards a game. Gran Pena FC score 2.8 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Gran Pena FC average 13.1 shots (6.6 on target), 5.0 corners and 2.7 cards a game.
The case against. Gran Pena FC's record still gives them 38% to win.
The read. CD Boiro to win. An open game. CD Boiro are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CD Boiro. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 68%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.24, rated 83% (CD Boiro: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 10; Gran Pena FC: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Backup: Gran Pena FC Over 0.5 Goals at 1.52. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: CD Boiro 2-1 Gran Pena FC (8% chance).
The agreed story. CD Boiro or the draw, an open game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).