Match details. Eredivisie, Women. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 12:15 Lagos time.
Form. SC Heerenveen have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten league games, 1.1 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: D W D W L. AZ Alkmaar have won five, drawn none and lost five of their last ten league games, 1.5 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L L L W W.
The numbers. SC Heerenveen score 1.8 and concede 2.2 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet. SC Heerenveen average 9.3 shots (6.0 on target), 4.3 corners and 0.3 cards a game. AZ Alkmaar score 1.2 and concede 2.4 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. AZ Alkmaar average 1.0 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make SC Heerenveen the likelier winners, but both teams' records favour AZ Alkmaar.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 80%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 2.5 Goals at 1.46, rated 80% (SC Heerenveen: over 2.5 goals in 8 of 10; AZ Alkmaar: over 2.5 goals in 8 of 10). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 1.5 at 1.66. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: SC Heerenveen 2-1 AZ Alkmaar (8% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (SC Heerenveen the favourite), an open game.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Too few cup games on either side to read.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).