Match details. Slovenia Cup, Round of 32. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 13:00 Lagos time. It is played at Športni park Videm, Videm pri Ptuju.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. SD Videm have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L D D. NK Brinje Grosuplje have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W L L.
The numbers. SD Videm score two and concede 1.8 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. SD Videm average 11.6 shots (5.9 on target), 5.9 corners and 3.1 cards a game. NK Brinje Grosuplje score 1.3 and concede 2.2 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. NK Brinje Grosuplje average 7.1 shots (2.8 on target), 2.9 corners and 2.4 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 10% against the records' 50%.
The read. No firm call: SD Videm are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make SD Videm the likelier winners; SD Videm are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour SD Videm. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 80%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: NK Brinje Grosuplje or Over 2.5 Goals (the call backs SD Videm); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: SD Videm 2-1 NK Brinje Grosuplje (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).