Match details. Nadeshiko League, Div. 1, Women. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 05:00 Lagos time.
Form. Ehime FC Ladies have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten league games, 1.3 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: D L W W L. Sfida Setagaya FC have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten league games, 1.4 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W D W L W.
The numbers. Ehime FC Ladies score 0.6 and concede 2.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Ehime FC Ladies average 6.5 corners and 0.0 cards a game. Sfida Setagaya FC score 1.5 and concede 1.6 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Sfida Setagaya FC average 4.6 corners and 0.4 cards a game.
The case against. Ehime FC Ladies's record still gives them 40% to win.
The read. Sfida Setagaya FC to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Sfida Setagaya FC the likelier winners; Sfida Setagaya FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Sfida Setagaya FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 63%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Ehime FC Ladies 1-2 Sfida Setagaya FC (10% chance).
The agreed story. Sfida Setagaya FC or the draw, an open game.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Too few cup games on either side to read.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).