Match details. Premier League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 12:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. 3K FC are 10th on 2 points after 2 games, 1 point behind Posta Rangers FC, level on points with Nairobi United. A win would take them above Posta Rangers FC. Muranga Seal are 7th on 3 points after 2 games, 1 point behind KCB, level on points with Tusker. A win would take them above KCB.
Form. 3K FC have won five, drawn five and lost none of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D D W D. In this competition 3K FC have gone D D. Muranga Seal have won four, drawn none and lost six of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W L. In this competition Muranga Seal have gone W L W W L W.
The numbers. 3K FC score 1.7 and concede one a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets. 3K FC average 12.8 shots (3.7 on target), 4.2 corners and 1.3 cards a game. Muranga Seal score 1.2 and concede 2.4 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Muranga Seal average 9.1 shots (4.4 on target), 3.6 corners and 1.5 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 39% against the records' 62%.
The read. No firm call: 3K FC are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make 3K FC the likelier winners; 3K FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour 3K FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.42, 81% on the records (3K FC: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 6 at home; Muranga Seal: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Backup: Over 0.5 Goals at 1.09. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: 3K FC 2-1 Muranga Seal (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).