FK Neftchi Fargona vs Al-Ittihad Club
Match details. AFC Champions League Elite, League Phase - 3. Kick-off is Mon 26 Oct, 14:45 Lagos time. It is played at Stadion Istiqlol, Fergana.
What's at stake. FK Neftchi Fargona are 7th on 3 points after 2 games, 1 point behind Al-Qadisiyah FC, level on points with Al-Nassr. A win would take them above Al-Qadisiyah FC. Al-Ittihad Club are 11th on 1 point after 2 games, 1 point behind Al Shamal, level on points with Tractor Sazi. A win would take them above Al Shamal.
Form. FK Neftchi Fargona have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L D. In this competition FK Neftchi Fargona have gone L W. Al-Ittihad Club have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L D.
The numbers. FK Neftchi Fargona score 1.6 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. FK Neftchi Fargona average 10.4 shots (4.7 on target), 6.9 corners and 2.1 cards a game. Al-Ittihad Club score two and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Al-Ittihad Club average 13.5 shots (5.7 on target), 5.7 corners and 1.9 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 62% against the records' 35%.
The read. No firm call: Al-Ittihad Club are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Al-Ittihad Club the likelier winners; Al-Ittihad Club are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 63%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.19, 80% on the records (FK Neftchi Fargona: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home; Al-Ittihad Club: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Backup: Al-Ittihad Club Over 0.5 Goals at 1.13. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); FK Neftchi Fargona Under 1.5 goals (FK Neftchi Fargona's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Al-Ittihad Club Over 1.5 goals (FK Neftchi Fargona's own games don't back it (2 of 5)). Predicted score: FK Neftchi Fargona 1-2 Al-Ittihad Club (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).