Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 13. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time.
Form. CF Santomera have won eight, drawn one and lost one of their last ten league games, 2.5 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W W W W D. San Javier Mar Menor CF have won four, drawn two and lost none of their last six league games, 2.3 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W W D W D.
The numbers. CF Santomera score 2.4 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. CF Santomera average 8.1 shots (4.2 on target), 5.0 corners and 3.3 cards a game. San Javier Mar Menor CF score 1.8 and concede 0.8 a game over their last six, with three clean sheets. San Javier Mar Menor CF average 11.0 shots (4.6 on target), 6.8 corners and 3.6 cards a game.
The case against. San Javier Mar Menor CF's record still gives them 35% to win.
The read. CF Santomera to win. An open game. CF Santomera are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CF Santomera. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 67%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: CF Santomera 2-1 San Javier Mar Menor CF (9% chance).
The agreed story. CF Santomera or the draw, an open game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).