Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory
Match details. A-League, Women. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 00:15 Lagos time.
Form. Wellington Phoenix have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W L W. Melbourne Victory have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L W W.
The numbers. Wellington Phoenix score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets. Wellington Phoenix average 11.2 shots (3.9 on target), 5.8 corners and 0.5 cards a game. Melbourne Victory score 1.2 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Melbourne Victory average 7.2 shots (3.0 on target), 4.2 corners and 1.8 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 29% against the records' 53%.
The read. No firm call: Melbourne Victory are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Melbourne Victory are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Melbourne Victory. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.34, 82% on the records (Wellington Phoenix: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 10; Melbourne Victory: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Backup: Melbourne Victory Over 0.5 Goals at 1.38. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Wellington Phoenix or Under 2.5 Goals (the call backs Melbourne Victory); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Wellington Phoenix 1-1 Melbourne Victory (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).