Al Sahel vs Al-Nasr SC
Match details. Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 17:50 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Al Sahel are 9th on 4 points after 4 games, level on points with Al Jahra, 1 point clear of Al Arabi. A win would take them above Al Jahra. Al-Nasr SC are 5th on 9 points after 5 games, level on points with Al Qadsia, 2 points clear of Al Shabab. A win would take them above Al Qadsia.
Form. Al Sahel have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D W L. Al-Nasr SC have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L W W.
The numbers. Al Sahel score 0.6 and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and five games without a goal. Al Sahel average 10.0 shots (4.5 on target), 5.2 corners and 3.8 cards a game. Al-Nasr SC score 1.4 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Al-Nasr SC average 11.2 shots (5.2 on target), 5.9 corners and 1.4 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last eight meetings Al Sahel have won three, drawn none and lost five. Six of the eight went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Al Sahel won one and Al-Nasr SC won three. The last time they met, on 26 Jan 2024, it finished Al Sahel 1-2 Al-Nasr SC.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 66%; six of the last eight meetings went over 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Al Sahel's record still gives them 27% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The read. Al-Nasr SC to win. An open game. Al-Nasr SC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Al-Nasr SC; the meetings favour Al-Nasr SC. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 66%. Six of the last eight meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Al-Nasr SC or Under 2.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Al Sahel 1-2 Al-Nasr SC (7% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).