Match details. Serie B, Women. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 14:30 Lagos time.
Form. Cesena FC have won five, drawn one and lost three of their last nine league games, 1.8 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W W W L W. Bologna FC have won four, drawn one and lost four of their last nine league games, 1.4 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L W L D W.
The numbers. Cesena FC score 2.6 and concede two a game over their last nine, with two clean sheets. Cesena FC average 12.3 shots (4.3 on target), 3.0 corners and 1.0 cards a game. Bologna FC score 1.4 and concede 1.1 a game over their last nine, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Bologna FC average 11.0 shots (3.7 on target), 5.0 corners and 1.0 cards a game.
The case against. Bologna FC's record still gives them 39% to win.
The read. Cesena FC to win. An open game. Cesena FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Cesena FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 78%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 2.5 Goals at 1.58, rated 78% (Cesena FC: over 2.5 goals in 8 of 9; Bologna FC: over 2.5 goals in 6 of 9). The safer one: Cesena FC or Bologna FC at 1.25 (89%). Predicted score: Cesena FC 2-1 Bologna FC (8% chance).
The agreed story. Cesena FC or the draw, an open game.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Too few cup games on either side to read.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).