Match details. Mineiro, Segunda Divisao. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 19:00 Lagos time.
Form. Venda Nova FC MG have won three, drawn two and lost none of their last five, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W D W W. Sao Joao Del Rei EC MG have won three, drawn none and lost two of their last five, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L W.
The numbers. Venda Nova FC MG score 2.8 and concede 0.4 a game over their last five, with three clean sheets. Venda Nova FC MG average 14.3 shots (7.0 on target), 3.7 corners and 1.7 cards a game. Sao Joao Del Rei EC MG score 1.4 and concede 0.6 a game over their last five, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Sao Joao Del Rei EC MG average 10.3 shots (3.3 on target), 5.7 corners and 3.7 cards a game.
The case against. Sao Joao Del Rei EC MG's record still gives them 30% to win.
The read. Venda Nova FC MG to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Venda Nova FC MG the likelier winners; Venda Nova FC MG are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Venda Nova FC MG. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 40%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Venda Nova FC MG 1-0 Sao Joao Del Rei EC MG (12% chance).
The agreed story. Venda Nova FC MG or the draw, a tight game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).