Match details. Gaucho, Women. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 19:00 Lagos time.
Form. Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W L. EC Juventude RS have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W D D.
The numbers. Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS score 2.8 and concede none a game in their last six at home, with six clean sheets and two games without a goal. Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS average 15.9 shots (6.7 on target), 7.6 corners and 1.9 cards a game. EC Juventude RS score 2.4 and concede two a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. EC Juventude RS average 17.6 shots (6.9 on target), 6.6 corners and 1.8 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 47%.
The case against. EC Juventude RS's record still gives them 22% to win.
The read. Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS to win. Their goals for and against make Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS the likelier winners; Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS.
The bets. No best bet: the strongest pick did not fit the read of this game. Predicted score: Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 2-1 EC Juventude RS (10% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS the favourite), goals in between.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS in their last cup games: won 3-1 v SC Internacional RS, drew 0-0 at SC Internacional RS. Too few cup games to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).