Valmiera FC vs Jfk Ventspils
Match details. 1.Liga. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 13:00 Lagos time.
Form. Valmiera FC have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D L W D. Jfk Ventspils have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L W L.
The numbers. Valmiera FC score 2.3 and concede 1.6 a game in their last seven at home, with one clean sheet. Valmiera FC average 5.5 corners and 2.8 cards a game. Jfk Ventspils score 0.5 and concede 2.2 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and five games without a goal. Jfk Ventspils average 6.8 corners and 1.9 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 90% against the records' 54%.
The read. No firm call: Valmiera FC are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Valmiera FC the likelier winners; Valmiera FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Valmiera FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 64%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Valmiera FC 2-1 Jfk Ventspils (10% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Valmiera FC the favourite), an open game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).