Match details. Liga Premier Serie A, Apertura - 9. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 01:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Dragones de Oaxaca are 2nd on 19 points after 8 games, 3 points clear of Acatlan. Heroes de Zaci FC are 10th on 2 points after 7 games, 3 points behind Ciervos. A win would take them level on points with Ciervos.
Form. Dragones de Oaxaca have won five, drawn four and lost one of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W D W. Heroes de Zaci FC have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L D L.
The numbers. Dragones de Oaxaca score 2.8 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Dragones de Oaxaca average 12.6 shots (6.8 on target), 4.0 corners and 2.4 cards a game. Heroes de Zaci FC score 1.1 and concede 2.6 a game in their last eight away, with one clean sheet and five games without a goal.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 88% against the records' 62%.
The read. No firm call: Dragones de Oaxaca are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Dragones de Oaxaca the likelier winners; Dragones de Oaxaca are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Dragones de Oaxaca. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 66%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Dragones de Oaxaca 2-1 Heroes de Zaci FC (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).