Ulinzi Stars FC vs Mara Sugar FC
Match details. Premier League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 13:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Ulinzi Stars FC are 17th on 1 point after 2 games, level on points with APS Bomet, 1 point clear of Mombasa Elite. A win would take them above APS Bomet. Mara Sugar FC are 2nd on 4 points after 2 games, 2 points behind GOR Mahia, level on points with AFC Leopards. A win would take them above GOR Mahia.
Form. Ulinzi Stars FC have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W W W. In this competition Ulinzi Stars FC have gone D L W W W L. Mara Sugar FC have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L D L. In this competition Mara Sugar FC have gone W D L D L W.
The numbers. Ulinzi Stars FC score one and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Ulinzi Stars FC average 10.0 shots (3.7 on target), 4.8 corners and 2.0 cards a game. Mara Sugar FC score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Mara Sugar FC average 8.5 shots (2.8 on target), 4.9 corners and 1.4 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last four meetings Ulinzi Stars FC have won one, drawn one and lost two. Two of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. The last time they met, on 22 Feb 2026, it finished Ulinzi Stars FC 1-2 Mara Sugar FC.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 44%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.14, 88% on the records (Ulinzi Stars FC: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 9; Mara Sugar FC: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Backup: Mara Sugar FC Over 0.5 Goals at 1.43. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Ulinzi Stars FC or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Mara Sugar FC or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Ulinzi Stars FC 1-1 Mara Sugar FC (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).