Provincial Osorno vs Deportes Linares

Match details. Segunda Division. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time.

Form. Provincial Osorno have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L L D. Deportes Linares have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L D.

The numbers. Provincial Osorno score 1.3 and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. Provincial Osorno average 3.8 corners and 2.0 cards a game. Deportes Linares score 1.9 and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. Deportes Linares average 7.4 shots (3.7 on target), 6.1 corners and 2.6 cards a game.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 34% against the records' 55%.

The read. No firm call: Deportes Linares are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Deportes Linares are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Deportes Linares. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 55%.

The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.28, rated 70% (Provincial Osorno: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 10; Deportes Linares: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 10). Backup: Deportes Linares Over 0.5 Goals at 1.34. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: Provincial Osorno 1-2 Deportes Linares (9% chance).

The agreed story. No side to back (Deportes Linares the favourite), an open game.

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.