Match details. Torneo Federal A, Round of 16. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Modesto Marrone, Monte Maiz.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. CD Argentino Monte Maiz have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W. Kimberley de Mar Del Plata have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D D W.
The numbers. CD Argentino Monte Maiz score 1.2 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. CD Argentino Monte Maiz average 10.2 shots (3.2 on target), 4.1 corners and 1.0 cards a game. Kimberley de Mar Del Plata score one and concede 0.6 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Kimberley de Mar Del Plata average 10.6 shots (1.9 on target), 7.1 corners and 1.8 cards a game.
The case against. A knockout game (Round of 16) with penalties if level, and CD Argentino Monte Maiz are not clearly stronger. Kimberley de Mar Del Plata's record still gives them 33% to win.
The read. CD Argentino Monte Maiz or the draw. A tight game. Their goals for and against make CD Argentino Monte Maiz the likelier winners; CD Argentino Monte Maiz are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CD Argentino Monte Maiz. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 38%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.13, 76% on the records (CD Argentino Monte Maiz: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; Kimberley de Mar Del Plata: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Backup: 1st Half - GG/NG: No at 1.10. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: CD Argentino Monte Maiz Over 0.5 goals (Kimberley de Mar Del Plata's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Under 0.5 first-half goals (the signs point different ways); CD Argentino Monte Maiz or Draw (1UP) (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: CD Argentino Monte Maiz 1-1 Kimberley de Mar Del Plata (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).