Match details. Slovenia Cup, Round of 32. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. NK Sencur have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W W W. NK Krsko Posavje have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D W L.
The numbers. NK Sencur score 1.7 and concede 1.8 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and three games without a goal. NK Krsko Posavje score 0.8 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. NK Krsko Posavje average 8.8 shots (2.7 on target), 3.4 corners and 2.0 cards a game.
The case against. A knockout game (Round of 32) with penalties if level, and NK Sencur are not clearly stronger.
The read. NK Sencur or the draw. NK Sencur are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour NK Sencur.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: NK Sencur Over 1.5 goals (NK Sencur's own games don't back it (5 of 10)). Predicted score: NK Sencur 1-1 NK Krsko Posavje (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).