NK Podvinci vs NK Radomlje
Match details. Slovenia Cup, Round of 32. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time. It is played at Stadion Podvinci, Podvici.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. NK Podvinci have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W L L. NK Radomlje have won one, drawn four and lost five of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D L L L.
The numbers. NK Podvinci score 1.5 and concede 1.3 a game in their last six at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. NK Podvinci average 10.0 shots (4.8 on target), 4.8 corners and 2.8 cards a game. NK Radomlje score 1.8 and concede two a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. NK Radomlje average 10.2 shots (4.1 on target), 4.2 corners and 3.4 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 3% against the records' 45%.
The read. No firm call: NK Podvinci are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. NK Podvinci are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour NK Podvinci. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 73%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: NK Radomlje or Over 2.5 Goals (the call backs NK Podvinci); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: NK Podvinci 2-1 NK Radomlje (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).