Match details. WE League, Women. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 06:00 Lagos time.
Form. Sanfrecce Hiroshima Regina have won five, drawn none and lost five of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W W L. AC Nagano Parceiro have won none, drawn four and lost six of their last ten, 0.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D L L L.
The numbers. Sanfrecce Hiroshima Regina score 1.6 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. Sanfrecce Hiroshima Regina average 11.1 shots (5.4 on target), 4.3 corners and 0.0 cards a game. AC Nagano Parceiro score 0.3 and concede 1.5 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets and five games without a goal. AC Nagano Parceiro average 7.4 shots (4.1 on target), 3.7 corners and 0.6 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 51%.
The case against. AC Nagano Parceiro's record still gives them 25% to win.
The read. Sanfrecce Hiroshima Regina to win. Their goals for and against make Sanfrecce Hiroshima Regina the likelier winners; Sanfrecce Hiroshima Regina are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Sanfrecce Hiroshima Regina.
The bets. Best bet: Sanfrecce Hiroshima Regina (Draw No Bet) at 1.15, rated 75% (Sanfrecce Hiroshima Regina won 5 of 10 (draws left out); AC Nagano Parceiro lost 6 of 6 (draws left out)). Predicted score: Sanfrecce Hiroshima Regina 1-0 AC Nagano Parceiro (13% chance).
The agreed story. Sanfrecce Hiroshima Regina or the draw, goals in between.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. AC Nagano Parceiro in their last cup games: drew 0-0 v Mito Hollyhock (2 divisions above), lost 0-6 at FC Tokyo (2 divisions above). Too few cup games to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).