Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 1. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time.
Form. SD Sarriana have won three, drawn two and lost two of their last seven league games, 1.6 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: D D L W L. Portonovo SD have won three, drawn two and lost two of their last seven league games, 1.6 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: D W L W L.
The numbers. SD Sarriana score 1.9 and concede 1.6 a game over their last seven, with one clean sheet. SD Sarriana average 8.4 shots (4.4 on target), 2.8 corners and 4.2 cards a game. Portonovo SD score 1.1 and concede 0.9 a game over their last seven, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. Portonovo SD average 7.7 shots (3.0 on target), 5.3 corners and 2.3 cards a game.
The read. No side to back. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side.
The bets. No best bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: SD Sarriana 1-1 Portonovo SD (12% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Portonovo SD the favourite), goals in between.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).