Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 1. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time.
Form. Celtiga CF have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten league games, 0.9 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W D D W L. UD Somozas have won two, drawn five and lost three of their last ten league games, 1.1 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L D W L D.
The numbers. Celtiga CF score 1.1 and concede 1.6 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and four games without a goal. Celtiga CF average 8.8 shots (5.2 on target), 3.0 corners and 1.6 cards a game. UD Somozas score 1.1 and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. UD Somozas average 12.2 shots (5.8 on target), 4.8 corners and 1.5 cards a game.
The read. No side to back. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side.
The bets. No best bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: Celtiga CF 1-1 UD Somozas (14% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (UD Somozas the favourite), goals in between.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).