Match details. Tercera Federacion, Group 15. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 15:30 Lagos time.
Form. UDC Chantrea have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten league games, 1.0 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: D D L D W. CD Pamplona have won one, drawn four and lost two of their last seven league games, 1.0 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W L D D D.
The numbers. UDC Chantrea score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. UDC Chantrea average 5.7 corners and 2.7 cards a game. CD Pamplona score 0.6 and concede 0.7 a game over their last seven, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. CD Pamplona average 9.8 shots (6.0 on target), 3.5 corners and 2.5 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 31% against the records' 52%.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 43%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.26, rated 77% (UDC Chantrea: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home; CD Pamplona: under 3.5 goals in 9 of 10). Predicted score: UDC Chantrea 1-1 CD Pamplona (14% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (CD Pamplona the favourite), a tight game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).