Match details. Championship. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 14:30 Lagos time.
Form. Leicesterford City have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten league games, 1.0 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L L W W L. Lerumo Lions FC have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten league games, 1.8 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W D L L W.
The numbers. Leicesterford City score one and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Leicesterford City average 10.0 shots (4.5 on target), 5.0 corners and 1.5 cards a game. Lerumo Lions FC score 1.2 and concede 0.8 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet. Lerumo Lions FC average 10.5 shots (3.2 on target), 4.2 corners and 1.0 cards a game.
The case against. Leicesterford City's record still gives them 27% to win.
The read. Lerumo Lions FC to win. A tight game. Lerumo Lions FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Lerumo Lions FC. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 36%.
The bets. Best bet: Draw or Lerumo Lions FC at 1.33, rated 73% (Lerumo Lions FC unbeaten in 5 of 6 away; Leicesterford City failed to win 3 of 5 at home). Full cover: Leicesterford City Over 0.5 Goals at 1.44. Whenever the best bet loses, this one wins. Predicted score: Leicesterford City 0-1 Lerumo Lions FC (12% chance).
The agreed story. Lerumo Lions FC or the draw, a tight game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).