Match details. National League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 10:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Ayeyawady United are 10th on 3 points after 3 games, 1 point behind Hantharwady United, 2 points clear of GFA. A win would take them above Hantharwady United. Yadanarbon are 4th on 7 points after 4 games, level on points with Shan United, 1 point clear of Yangon United. A win would take them above Shan United.
Form. Ayeyawady United have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W L W. Yadanarbon have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D W L.
The numbers. Ayeyawady United score 1.7 and concede 1.9 a game in their last seven at home, with two clean sheets. Ayeyawady United average 14.7 shots (5.7 on target), 5.7 corners and 0.7 cards a game. Yadanarbon score 0.9 and concede 0.7 a game in their last seven away, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. Yadanarbon average 14.8 shots (4.6 on target), 4.2 corners and 1.8 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Ayeyawady United have won three, drawn three and lost four. Five of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, Ayeyawady United won one, one was drawn and Yadanarbon won two. The last time they met, on 5 Mar 2026, it finished Ayeyawady United 1-2 Yadanarbon.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 70% against the records' 49%. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 56%.
The read. No firm call: Yadanarbon are the better side, but not at this price. Both teams' records favour Yadanarbon; the meetings favour Yadanarbon.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: Ayeyawady United 1-1 Yadanarbon (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).