Match details. WE League, Women. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 04:00 Lagos time.
Form. Tokyo Verdy Beleza have won seven, drawn none and lost three of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W L. Chifure AS Elfen Saitama have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W D.
The numbers. Tokyo Verdy Beleza score 2.4 and concede 1.8 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet. Tokyo Verdy Beleza average 11.9 shots (7.1 on target), 5.1 corners and 0.3 cards a game. Chifure AS Elfen Saitama score 1.3 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Chifure AS Elfen Saitama average 10.0 shots (4.7 on target), 4.4 corners and 0.3 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 75% against the records' 45%.
The read. No firm call: Tokyo Verdy Beleza are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Tokyo Verdy Beleza are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Tokyo Verdy Beleza. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 65%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Tokyo Verdy Beleza 2-1 Chifure AS Elfen Saitama (8% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (Tokyo Verdy Beleza the favourite), an open game.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Too few cup games on either side to read.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).