Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal
Match details. EFL Cup, Round of 16. Kick-off is Tue 27 Oct, 21:00 Lagos time. It is played at Highbury Stadium, Fleetwood, Lancashire.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Fleetwood Town have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W D W. Arsenal have won eight, drawn one and lost one of their last ten, 2.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W W.
The numbers. Fleetwood Town score 1.8 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Fleetwood Town average 9.8 shots (4.1 on target), 4.7 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 36% of the ball. Arsenal score 1.7 and concede 1.2 a game in their last six away, with three clean sheets. Arsenal average 13.2 shots (4.6 on target), 2.0 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 60% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 92% against the records' 52%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The read. No firm call: Arsenal are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Arsenal the likelier winners; Arsenal are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Arsenal. Their goals for and against point to an open game.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Arsenal or Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (Arsenal are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Arsenal are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Fleetwood Town 0-3 Arsenal (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).