Cologne vs Union Berlin
Match details. DFB Pokal, Round of 32. Kick-off is Tue 27 Oct, 20:45 Lagos time. It is played at RheinEnergieSTADION, Köln.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Cologne have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W L D. In this competition Cologne have gone W. Union Berlin have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D W L L. In this competition Union Berlin have gone W.
The numbers. Cologne score 1.4 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Cologne average 15.6 shots (5.4 on target), 5.9 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 52% of the ball. Union Berlin score 1.6 and concede three a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Union Berlin average 12.5 shots (4.6 on target), 4.2 corners and 2.9 cards a game, with 42% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Cologne have won one, drawn three and lost six. Five of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Cologne won one, one was drawn and Union Berlin won two. The last time they met, on 2 May 2026, it finished Cologne 2-2 Union Berlin: Cologne had 8 shots to 13, 41% of the ball, five yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%.
The case against. Union Berlin's record still gives them 37% to win. The meetings do not back them. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The read. Cologne to win. An open game. Union Berlin are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Union Berlin. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%.
The bets. Best bet: Cologne or Draw at 1.24, 81% on the records (a proven pattern for games read like this one (team or draw)). Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (Cologne are a clear winner, no Unders); Cologne Over 1.5 goals (Cologne's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Under 5.5 Goals (Cologne are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Cologne 2-1 Union Berlin (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).