Rot-Weiss Essen vs RB Leipzig
Match details. DFB Pokal, Round of 32. Kick-off is Tue 27 Oct, 18:00 Lagos time. It is played at Stadion Essen. The referee is Florian Exner.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Rot-Weiss Essen have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W D D. In this competition Rot-Weiss Essen have gone W. RB Leipzig have won five, drawn none and lost five of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L W W.
The numbers. Rot-Weiss Essen score 2.2 and concede 0.5 a game in their last six at home, with four clean sheets. Rot-Weiss Essen average 18.2 shots (5.6 on target), 4.8 corners and 2.8 cards a game, with 58% of the ball. RB Leipzig score 0.8 and concede 3.8 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. RB Leipzig average 15.0 shots (5.8 on target), 4.4 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.
Head to head. The last time they met, on 17 Aug 2024, it finished Rot-Weiss Essen 1-4 RB Leipzig: Rot-Weiss Essen had 12 shots to 17, 42% of the ball, three yellow cards.
The case against. Rot-Weiss Essen's record still gives them 79% to win.
The read. RB Leipzig to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Rot-Weiss Essen the likelier winners; Rot-Weiss Essen are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Rot-Weiss Essen. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 51%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (RB Leipzig are a clear winner, no Unders); RB Leipzig Over 0.5 Goals (Rot-Weiss Essen's own games don't back it (2 of 6)); Under 5.5 Goals (RB Leipzig are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Rot-Weiss Essen 1-2 RB Leipzig (2% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).