Bochum vs Mainz
Match details. DFB Pokal, Round of 32. Kick-off is Tue 27 Oct, 18:00 Lagos time. It is played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum. The referee is Michael Bacher.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Bochum have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L L D. In this competition Bochum have gone W. Mainz have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W L. In this competition Mainz have gone W.
The numbers. Bochum score 0.4 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Bochum average 15.4 shots (4.2 on target), 5.1 corners and 2.9 cards a game, with 52% of the ball. Mainz score 4.2 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five away, with four clean sheets. Mainz average 19.2 shots (7.0 on target), 5.5 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 54% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Bochum have won two, drawn one and lost six. Five of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, one was drawn and Mainz won three. The last time they met, on 10 May 2025, it finished Bochum 1-4 Mainz: Bochum had 11 shots to 22, 44% of the ball, three yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 44%; five of the last nine meetings went over 2.5.
The case against. Likely cup rotation: a domestic cup tie against a side from a division below. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 44%.
The read. Mainz or the draw. An open game. Their goals for and against make Mainz the likelier winners; Mainz are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Mainz; the meetings favour Mainz. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Five of the last nine meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Draw or Mainz at 1.19, 76% on the records (Mainz unbeaten in 5 of 5 away; Bochum failed to win 5 of 5 at home). Backup: Mainz Over 0.5 Goals at 1.13. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (Mainz are a clear winner, no Unders); 1st Half Result or Match Result: Mainz (the signs point different ways); Mainz Over 1.5 goals (Bochum's own games don't back it (0 of 5)). Predicted score: Bochum 1-2 Mainz (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).