Match details. Super League. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 09:30 Lagos time.
Form. Adhyaksa Farmel FC have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L L L. Psim Yogyakarta have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L.
The numbers. Adhyaksa Farmel FC score one and concede 1.6 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. Adhyaksa Farmel FC average 8.0 shots (2.6 on target), 3.9 corners and 2.0 cards a game. Psim Yogyakarta score 0.4 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Psim Yogyakarta average 9.9 shots (3.9 on target), 5.3 corners and 2.5 cards a game.
The case against. Psim Yogyakarta's record still gives them 28% to win.
The read. Adhyaksa Farmel FC to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Adhyaksa Farmel FC the likelier winners; Adhyaksa Farmel FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Adhyaksa Farmel FC. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 42%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Psim Yogyakarta Over 0.5 Goals (Psim Yogyakarta's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Adhyaksa Farmel FC 1-0 Psim Yogyakarta (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).