Estoril Praia vs Moreirense FC
Match details. Liga Portugal, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 16:30 Lagos time. It is played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Cascais. The referee is Carlos Macedo.
What's at stake. Estoril Praia are 18th on 2 points after 8 games, 2 points behind Nacional. A win would take them above Nacional. Moreirense FC are 12th on 8 points after 8 games, level on points with Vitória SC, level on points with Maritimo. A win would take them above Vitória SC.
Team news. Y. Begraoui is their top scorer. Isma Sierra is their centre-back. Estoril Praia's line-up is confirmed. A. Duville-Parsemain is their main creator. Moreirense FC's line-up is confirmed.
Form. Estoril Praia have won none, drawn three and lost seven of their last ten, 0.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L L D. Moreirense FC have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D W L.
The numbers. Estoril Praia score 0.6 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Estoril Praia average 12.6 shots (4.9 on target), 4.7 corners and 2.7 cards a game, with 48% of the ball. Moreirense FC score 0.6 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Moreirense FC average 7.2 shots (2.8 on target), 2.9 corners and 2.8 cards a game, with 36% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Estoril Praia have won two, drawn three and lost five. Six of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, three were drawn and Moreirense FC won one. The last time they met, on 20 Apr 2026, it finished Estoril Praia 0-1 Moreirense FC: Estoril Praia had 4 shots to 11, 57% of the ball, two yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%; six of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The case against. Moreirense FC's record still gives them 46% to win. The meetings do not back them. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%. Not everything agrees on goals: six of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The read. Estoril Praia or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Moreirense FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Moreirense FC; the meetings favour Moreirense FC. Their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.35, 75% on the records (Estoril Praia: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; Moreirense FC: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 9). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.12. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Estoril Praia 1-1 Moreirense FC (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).