FC Thun vs Lugano
Match details. Super League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time. It is played at Cornaredo, Lugano, a neutral ground.
What's at stake. FC Thun are 9th on 10 points after 10 games, 2 points behind FC Luzern, 1 point clear of FC Vaduz. A win would take them above FC Luzern. Lugano are 1st on 28 points after 10 games, 3 points clear of BSC Young Boys.
Form. FC Thun have won three, drawn one and lost six of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L L L. In this competition FC Thun have gone L W L L L D. Lugano have won nine, drawn one and lost none of their last ten, 2.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W D W. In this competition Lugano have gone W W W D W W.
The numbers. FC Thun score 1.7 and concede 2.7 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. FC Thun average 15.2 shots (3.8 on target), 5.8 corners and 3.1 cards a game, with 48% of the ball. Lugano score 3.1 and concede 0.7 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. Lugano average 16.9 shots (5.9 on target), 5.9 corners and 3.0 cards a game, with 58% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings FC Thun have won three, drawn two and lost five. Four of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, FC Thun won one and Lugano won three. The last time they met, on 25 Apr 2026, it finished FC Thun 0-1 Lugano: FC Thun had 13 shots to 13, 45% of the ball, seven yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 72%; six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game. Not everything agrees on goals: six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The read. Lugano to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Lugano the likelier winners; Lugano are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Lugano; the meetings favour Lugano. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 72%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 5.5 Goals (Lugano are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 4.5 Goals (Lugano are a clear winner, no Unders); FC Thun Under 1.5 goals (FC Thun's own games don't back it (3 of 10)). Predicted score: FC Thun 1-2 Lugano (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).