SK Sturm Graz vs LASK
Match details. Bundesliga, Women. Kick-off is Fri 23 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time.
Form. SK Sturm Graz have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L L L. LASK have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W D L.
The numbers. SK Sturm Graz score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. SK Sturm Graz average 6.7 corners and 0.7 cards a game. LASK score 1.8 and concede two a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. LASK average 3.7 corners and 1.2 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 78% against the records' 53%.
The read. No firm call: SK Sturm Graz are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. SK Sturm Graz are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour SK Sturm Graz. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 58%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: SK Sturm Graz 2-1 LASK (9% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (SK Sturm Graz the favourite), an open game.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Too few cup games on either side to read.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).