Napoli vs Roma
Match details. Serie A, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time. It is played at Maradona Stadium, Naples. The referee is Andrea Colombo.
What's at stake. Napoli are 10th on 10 points after 7 games, 1 point behind Juventus, 1 point clear of Atalanta. A win would take them above Juventus. Roma are 3rd on 17 points after 7 games, 2 points behind Lazio, 2 points clear of AC Milan. A win would take them above Lazio.
Team news. Napoli are without Alisson Santos (muscle injury), A. Buongiorno (knee injury), David Neres (thigh injury), C. Favasuli (thigh injury), Alisson Santos (muscle injury), A. Buongiorno (knee injury). Roma are without M. Bah (knee injury), P. Dybala (calf injury), M. Kone (muscle injury), L. Pellegrini (thigh injury), M. Svilar (toe injury), M. Bah (knee injury). M. Svilar is their first-choice keeper. P. Dybala is their main creator.
Form. Napoli have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L W D. Roma have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L D D.
The numbers. Napoli score 1.8 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Napoli average 12.1 shots (5.1 on target), 5.1 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 53% of the ball. Roma score 2.4 and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets. Roma average 16.2 shots (6.2 on target), 5.1 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 55% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Napoli have won four, drawn five and lost one. Three of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Napoli won two and two were drawn. The last time they met, on 15 Feb 2026, it finished Napoli 2-2 Roma: Napoli had 11 shots to 9, 61% of the ball, two yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: Roma are the stronger side on form and the table, but both teams' records favour Roma; the meetings favour Napoli.
The case against. Napoli's record still gives them 24% to win. The meetings do not back them.
The read. Roma or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Roma are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Roma; the meetings favour Napoli. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 46%. Seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.39, 74% on the records (Napoli: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 7; Roma: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 7). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.17. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Napoli 1-1 Roma (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).