EAEST

15:30Sat 24 Oct

CAS

Estrela Amadora vs Casa Pia Lisbon

CLASS A

THE READ

Match details. Liga Portugal, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 15:30 Lagos time. It is played at Campo Municipal dos Prazeres, Amadora. The referee is Bruno Pires Costa.

What's at stake. Estrela Amadora are 10th on 10 points after 8 games, 1 point behind SC Braga, 2 points clear of Vitória SC. A win would take them above SC Braga. Casa Pia Lisbon are 17th on 4 points after 8 games, level on points with Nacional, 2 points clear of Estoril. A win would take them above Nacional.

Form. Estrela Amadora have won two, drawn four and lost two of their last eight, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D W D. In this competition Estrela Amadora have gone L L D W D W. Casa Pia Lisbon have won one, drawn one and lost six of their last eight, 0.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L D L. In this competition Casa Pia Lisbon have gone L W L D L L.

The numbers. Estrela Amadora score 1.8 and concede 1.9 a game over their last eight, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Estrela Amadora average 12.8 shots (4.1 on target), 4.2 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 51% of the ball. Casa Pia Lisbon score 0.4 and concede 2.1 a game over their last eight, with one clean sheet and six games without a goal. Casa Pia Lisbon average 9.6 shots (2.6 on target), 4.0 corners and 2.8 cards a game, with 44% of the ball.

Head to head. In the last eight meetings Estrela Amadora have won five, drawn none and lost three. Four of the eight went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, Estrela Amadora won two and Casa Pia Lisbon won two. The last time they met, on 20 Mar 2026, it finished Estrela Amadora 4-0 Casa Pia Lisbon: Estrela Amadora had 23 shots to 8, 53% of the ball, five yellow cards.

The case against. Casa Pia Lisbon's record still gives them 22% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 55%.

The read. Estrela Amadora to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Estrela Amadora the likelier winners; Estrela Amadora are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Estrela Amadora; the meetings favour Estrela Amadora.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Casa Pia Lisbon Under 1.5 goals (Estrela Amadora's own games don't back it (2 of 8)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Estrela Amadora 1-0 Casa Pia Lisbon (10% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Double Chance: Estrela Amadora or DrawIN CODES

1.20

EST 6 of 8 (75%) · CAS 7 of 8 (88%)77.8%

Estrela Amadora unbeaten in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Casa Pia Lisbon failed to win 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 81% · H2H 4 of 6 · Estrela Amadora: only games against sides at Casa Pia Lisbon's level · Casa Pia Lisbon: only games against sides at Estrela Amadora's level

Estrela Amadora or Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.16

EST 4 of 8 (50%) · CAS 7 of 8 (88%)72.9%

Estrela Amadora: the bet landed in 4 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Casa Pia Lisbon: the bet landed in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 69% · H2H 6 of 6 · Estrela Amadora: only games against sides at Casa Pia Lisbon's level · Casa Pia Lisbon: only games against sides at Estrela Amadora's level

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.12

EST 6 of 8 (75%) · CAS 6 of 8 (75%)91.7%

Estrela Amadora: under 4.5 goals in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Casa Pia Lisbon: under 4.5 goals in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · H2H 5 of 6 · Estrela Amadora: only games against sides at Casa Pia Lisbon's level · Casa Pia Lisbon: only games against sides at Estrela Amadora's level

Under 3.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.36

EST 3 of 8 (38%) · CAS 6 of 8 (75%)76.2%

Estrela Amadora: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Casa Pia Lisbon: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 56% · H2H 3 of 6 · Estrela Amadora: only games against sides at Casa Pia Lisbon's level · Casa Pia Lisbon: only games against sides at Estrela Amadora's level

ESTRELA AMADORA GOALS

Estrela Amadora Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.20

EST 6 of 8 (75%) · CAS 7 of 8 (88%)74.7%

Estrela Amadora scored in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Casa Pia Lisbon conceded in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 81% · H2H 4 of 6 · Estrela Amadora: only games against sides at Casa Pia Lisbon's level · Casa Pia Lisbon: only games against sides at Estrela Amadora's level

HALVES

Under 2.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.10

EST 8 of 8 (100%) · CAS 8 of 8 (100%)91.7%

Estrela Amadora: the bet landed in 8 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Casa Pia Lisbon: the bet landed in 8 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · H2H 4 of 6 · on half-time scores · Estrela Amadora: only games against sides at Casa Pia Lisbon's level · Casa Pia Lisbon: only games against sides at Estrela Amadora's level

1st Half - GG/NG: NoPAGE ONLY

1.19

EST 5 of 8 (62%) · CAS 7 of 8 (88%)77.1%

Estrela Amadora: the bet landed in 5 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Casa Pia Lisbon: the bet landed in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · H2H 5 of 6 · on half-time scores · Estrela Amadora: only games against sides at Casa Pia Lisbon's level · Casa Pia Lisbon: only games against sides at Estrela Amadora's level

Under 1.5 first-half goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.45

EST 4 of 8 (50%) · CAS 5 of 8 (62%)58.9%

Estrela Amadora: the bet landed in 4 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Casa Pia Lisbon: the bet landed in 5 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 56% · H2H 4 of 6 · on half-time scores · Estrela Amadora: only games against sides at Casa Pia Lisbon's level · Casa Pia Lisbon: only games against sides at Estrela Amadora's level

CARDS

Over 3.5 CardsIN CODES

1.21

EST 6 of 8 (75%) · CAS 7 of 8 (88%)81.3%

Estrela Amadora's games: over 3.5 cards in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · Casa Pia Lisbon's games: over 3.5 cards in 7 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 81% · Estrela Amadora: only games against sides at Casa Pia Lisbon's level · Casa Pia Lisbon: only games against sides at Estrela Amadora's level

Left off the list: Casa Pia Lisbon Under 1.5 goals (Estrela Amadora's own games don't back it (2 of 8)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–0 10.2%

Estrela Amadora goals →

Casa Pia Lisbon goals ↓

0-08%

1-010%

2-09%

3-05%

4-02%

5-00.6%

0-17%

1-113%

2-19%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.6%

0-24%

1-26%

2-25%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.3%

0-31%

1-32%

2-32%

3-31.0%

4-30.4%

5-30.1%

0-40.4%

1-40.6%

2-40.5%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.1%

2-50.1%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 8

ESTRELA AMADORADDWDWDLL1.25 PPG

CASA PIA LISBONLLLLDLWL0.50 PPG

THE NUMBERS

ESTRELA AMADORA HOMExCASA PIA LISBON AWAY

1.75SCORED A GAME0.381.88CONCEDED A GAME2.120%CLEAN SHEETS12%25%FAILED TO SCORE75%4.25CORNERS A GAME4.002.38CARDS A GAME2.751.28xG0.851.54xG AGAINST1.61

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

543 OF 573

NO PRICE YET

Both sides' last 5 games point to 5.2+ cards.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

1.29POINTS A GAME0.50-0.14GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME-1.75+1.4SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST-0.71.0LAST 5: POINTS A GAME0.87LEAGUE GAMES8

Estrela Amadora: the quality side - more points a game, a better goal difference.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

68%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

54%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

64%

NO · 85/90

ESTRELA AMADORA OR DRAW

74%

NO · 80/85

CASA PIA LISBON OR DRAW

63%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (7 and 8 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

ESTRELA AMADORAxCASA PIA LISBON

5GAMES51.40SCORED A GAME0.601.80CONCEDED A GAME1.403.2GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.080%OVER 1.5 GOALS40%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS40%60%BOTH SCORE40%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES5.2–CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES12.6

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 8

ESTRELA AMADORA 5 · 62%DRAW 0CASA PIA LISBON 3 · 38%

2 of 8BOTH TEAMS SCORED

4 of 8OVER 1.5 GOALS

4 of 8OVER 2.5 GOALS

3 of 8OVER 3.5 GOALS

2021-12-13Estrela Amadora 1 – 0 Casa Pia Lisbon

2022-04-23Estrela Amadora 0 – 3 Casa Pia Lisbon

2023-10-08Estrela Amadora 1 – 0 Casa Pia Lisbon

2024-03-08Estrela Amadora 3 – 1 Casa Pia Lisbon

2024-08-31Estrela Amadora 0 – 1 Casa Pia Lisbon

2025-02-09Estrela Amadora 0 – 1 Casa Pia Lisbon

2025-11-01Estrela Amadora 5 – 3 Casa Pia Lisbon

2026-03-20Estrela Amadora 4 – 0 Casa Pia Lisbon

TRENDS

Estrela Amadora have scored in 80% of their games.

Casa Pia Lisbon have scored in 40% of their games.

Estrela Amadora failed to score in 25% of their games.

Casa Pia Lisbon failed to score in 75% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAhead to headleague tableteam newscornerscards