Alverca Futebol vs FC Arouca
Match details. Liga Portugal, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 18:00 Lagos time. It is played at Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca, Alverkaduribajo. The referee is Pedro Miguel Torres Ramalho.
Form. Alverca Futebol have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W L. FC Arouca have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W D L D.
The numbers. Alverca Futebol score 1.3 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Alverca Futebol average 9.2 shots (3.5 on target), 4.8 corners and 2.3 cards a game. FC Arouca score 1.2 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. FC Arouca average 9.9 shots (3.7 on target), 3.1 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 53%.
The case against. FC Arouca's record still gives them 56% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 53%.
The read. Alverca Futebol or the draw. A tight game. FC Arouca are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour FC Arouca. Their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.38, 74% on the records (Alverca Futebol: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 9; FC Arouca: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 6). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.14. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Alverca Futebol 1-1 FC Arouca (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).