Roma vs Cagliari
Match details. Serie A, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is Tue 27 Oct, 20:45 Lagos time. It is played at Stadio Olimpico, Rome. The referee is Ermanno Feliciani.
What's at stake. Roma are 3rd on 18 points after 8 games, 4 points behind Lazio, level on points with AC Milan. Cagliari are 9th on 13 points after 8 games, level on points with Torino, 2 points clear of Napoli. A win would take them above Torino.
Team news. Roma are without M. Bah (knee injury), M. Kone (muscle injury), L. Pellegrini (thigh injury), M. Svilar (toe injury), P. Dybala (calf injury), M. Bah (knee injury). Cagliari are without M. Felici (knee injury), R. Idrissi (knee injury), H. Winks (back injury), M. Felici (knee injury), R. Idrissi (knee injury), H. Winks (back injury).
Form. Roma have won five, drawn four and lost one of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W L D. Cagliari have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D W W.
The numbers. Roma score 2.6 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Roma average 16.3 shots (5.8 on target), 6.0 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 56% of the ball. Cagliari score 0.8 and concede 1.1 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and three games without a goal. Cagliari average 10.7 shots (4.2 on target), 3.8 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 43% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Roma have won seven, drawn one and lost two. Five of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Roma won two, one was drawn and Cagliari won one. The last time they met, on 9 Feb 2026, it finished Roma 2-0 Cagliari: Roma had 15 shots to 3, 53% of the ball, six yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 74% against the records' 52%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 39%.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game.
The read. No firm call: Roma are the better side, but not at this price. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Roma the likelier winners; Roma are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Roma; the meetings favour Roma. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 39%.
The bets. Best bet: Roma or Draw at 1.09, 92% on the records (a proven pattern for games read like this one (team or draw)). Backup: Roma Over 0.5 Goals at 1.10. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 3.5 Goals (Roma are a clear winner, no Unders); Roma Over 1.5 goals (Cagliari's own games don't back it (2 of 8)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Roma 2-0 Cagliari (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).