Sassuolo vs Lazio
Match details. Serie A, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is Tue 27 Oct, 18:30 Lagos time. It is played at Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia. The referee is Luca Zufferli.
What's at stake. Sassuolo are 14th on 8 points after 8 games, level on points with Bologna, 1 point clear of Monza. A win would take them above Bologna. Lazio are 2nd on 22 points after 8 games, level on points with Inter, 4 points clear of AS Roma. A win would take them above Inter.
Team news. Sassuolo are without D. Boloca (muscle injury), J. Idzes (muscle injury), I. Kone (broken leg), F. Leysen (knee injury), Y. Paz (knee injury), D. Boloca (muscle injury). Lazio are without A. Furlanetto (knee injury), A. Gudmundsson (shoulder injury), A. Marusic (muscle injury), N. Rovella (calf injury), A. Pinamonti (illness), A. Furlanetto (knee injury).
Form. Sassuolo have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D L W. Lazio have won eight, drawn one and lost one of their last ten, 2.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W D.
The numbers. Sassuolo score two and concede one a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Sassuolo average 13.6 shots (5.6 on target), 4.4 corners and 1.3 cards a game, with 47% of the ball. Lazio score 1.8 and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. Lazio average 14.4 shots (4.7 on target), 5.6 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 51% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Sassuolo have won three, drawn one and lost five. Three of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Sassuolo won one, one was drawn and Lazio won two. The last time they met, on 9 Mar 2026, it finished Sassuolo 1-2 Lazio: Sassuolo had 7 shots to 13, 50% of the ball, four yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%; six of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game. Not everything agrees on goals: six of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The read. Lazio to win. A draw is live. An open game. Lazio are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Lazio; the meetings favour Lazio. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Sassuolo Under 1.5 goals (Sassuolo's own games don't back it (4 of 8)); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Sassuolo 1-2 Lazio (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).