Bury FC vs Prescot Cables
Match details. FA Trophy, 1/128-finals. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Gigg Lane, Bury.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Bury FC have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W L W. Prescot Cables have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W W. In this competition Prescot Cables have gone W.
The numbers. Bury FC score 4.5 and concede 0.5 a game in their last six at home, with three clean sheets. Bury FC average 15.7 shots (6.8 on target), 5.3 corners and 1.8 cards a game. Prescot Cables score 0.4 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and four games without a goal.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 74% against the records' 51%.
The read. No firm call: Bury FC are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Bury FC the likelier winners; Bury FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Bury FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 69%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Bury FC Over 1.5 Goals (Prescot Cables's own games don't back it (3 of 7)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Bury FC 3-0 Prescot Cables (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).