Match details. Liga de Ascenso. Kick-off is Fri 23 Oct, 21:30 Lagos time.
Form. CD Olimpico Litoral have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D D D L. AD Tenancingo have won five, drawn none and lost five of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L L.
The numbers. CD Olimpico Litoral score 2.4 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. CD Olimpico Litoral average 6.0 corners and 2.7 cards a game. AD Tenancingo score 0.8 and concede 2.8 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. AD Tenancingo average 3.0 corners and 0.0 cards a game.
The case against. AD Tenancingo's record still gives them 27% to win.
The read. CD Olimpico Litoral to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make CD Olimpico Litoral the likelier winners; both teams' records favour CD Olimpico Litoral. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 70%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 2.5 Goals at 1.51, rated 70% (CD Olimpico Litoral: over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home; AD Tenancingo: over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Predicted score: CD Olimpico Litoral 2-1 AD Tenancingo (9% chance).
The agreed story. CD Olimpico Litoral or the draw, an open game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).