Match details. Campionato Sammarinese, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is Sat 24 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. FC Fiorentino are 8th on 7 points after 5 games, 1 point behind Libertas, 1 point clear of Domagnano. A win would take them above Libertas. SP Cailungo are 13th on 3 points after 5 games, level on points with Juvenes / Dogana, level on points with Murata. A win would take them above Juvenes / Dogana.
Form. FC Fiorentino have won three, drawn one and lost three of their last seven league games, 1.4 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W L D L W. SP Cailungo have won one, drawn one and lost seven of their last nine league games, 0.4 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L W L L L.
The numbers. FC Fiorentino score 2.1 and concede 1.1 a game over their last seven, with two clean sheets. SP Cailungo score one and concede 2.4 a game over their last nine, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. SP Cailungo average 8.2 shots (2.5 on target), 2.8 corners and 1.2 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings FC Fiorentino have won seven, drawn one and lost two. Six of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, FC Fiorentino won three and SP Cailungo won one. The last time they met, on 15 Mar 2026, it finished FC Fiorentino 3-1 SP Cailungo.
The case against. SP Cailungo's record still gives them 29% to win.
The read. FC Fiorentino to win. Their goals for and against make FC Fiorentino the likelier winners; FC Fiorentino are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour FC Fiorentino; the meetings favour FC Fiorentino.
The bets. No best bet: the strongest pick did not fit the read of this game. Predicted score: FC Fiorentino 2-1 SP Cailungo (10% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (FC Fiorentino the favourite), goals in between.
The league run. FC Fiorentino: up and down in the league (W L D L W). SP Cailungo: up and down in the league (L W L L L). Not confident in FC Fiorentino: two defeats in their last five league games to sides outside the top third.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).