Anagennisi Deryneia vs Ethnikos Achnas FC
Match details. 2nd Division, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is Fri 23 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Anagennisi Deryneia are 11th on 3 points after 4 games, 1 point behind Spartakos Kitiou, level on points with Polemidion. A win would take them above Spartakos Kitiou. Ethnikos Achnas FC are 3rd on 9 points after 4 games, 1 point behind Enosis, level on points with PAEEK. A win would take them above Enosis.
Form. Anagennisi Deryneia have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L L D. Ethnikos Achnas FC have won five, drawn none and lost five of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W W W.
The numbers. Anagennisi Deryneia score 1.2 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Anagennisi Deryneia average 8.0 shots (3.2 on target), 3.0 corners and 0.8 cards a game. Ethnikos Achnas FC score 2.2 and concede 1.8 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Ethnikos Achnas FC average 13.3 shots (4.8 on target), 5.1 corners and 1.7 cards a game.
Head to head. Ethnikos Achnas FC have won all of the last three meetings. None of the three went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in none. The last time they met, on 25 Nov 2022, it finished Anagennisi Deryneia 0-2 Ethnikos Achnas FC.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%; three of the last three meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Anagennisi Deryneia's record still gives them 27% to win.
The read. Ethnikos Achnas FC to win. Their goals for and against make Ethnikos Achnas FC the likelier winners; Ethnikos Achnas FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Ethnikos Achnas FC; the meetings favour Ethnikos Achnas FC.
The bets. Best bet: Draw or Ethnikos Achnas FC at 1.24, 73% on the records (Ethnikos Achnas FC unbeaten in 3 of 6 away; Anagennisi Deryneia failed to win 5 of 5 at home). Predicted score: Anagennisi Deryneia 1-2 Ethnikos Achnas FC (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).