FC Pacos Ferreira vs Leca FC
Match details. Liga Portugal 3, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is Fri 23 Oct, 20:30 Lagos time.
What's at stake. FC Pacos Ferreira are 8th on 5 points after 6 games, 2 points behind Caldas. A win would take them above Caldas. Leca FC are 2nd on 10 points after 6 games, 6 points behind CF Os Belenenses.
Form. FC Pacos Ferreira have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D D D L. Leca FC have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W L.
The numbers. FC Pacos Ferreira score 0.8 and concede 1.5 a game in their last six at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. FC Pacos Ferreira average 10.9 shots (3.8 on target), 6.3 corners and 3.3 cards a game. Leca FC score 1.8 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Leca FC average 12.0 shots (4.7 on target), 5.0 corners and 2.2 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 32% against the records' 60%.
The read. No firm call: Leca FC are the better side, but not at this price. A tight game. Leca FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Leca FC. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 43%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: FC Pacos Ferreira 1-1 Leca FC (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).