Match details. Campionato Sammarinese, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is Fri 23 Oct, 20:15 Lagos time.
What's at stake. SS Pennarossa are 14th on 3 points after 5 games, level on points with Murata, 1 point clear of San Marino Academy. A win would take them above Murata. SS San Giovanni are 12th on 3 points after 5 games, level on points with Cailungo, level on points with Murata. A win would take them above Cailungo.
Form. SS Pennarossa have won two, drawn two and lost four of their last eight league games, 1.0 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L W L L L. SS San Giovanni have won two, drawn none and lost seven of their last nine league games, 0.7 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L L W L L.
The numbers. SS Pennarossa score 1.2 and concede 2.8 a game over their last eight, with two clean sheets. SS San Giovanni score 0.6 and concede 2.2 a game over their last nine, with two clean sheets and six games without a goal. SS San Giovanni average 4.5 corners and 2.5 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings SS Pennarossa have won three, drawn three and lost four. Seven of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, SS Pennarossa won one, one was drawn and SS San Giovanni won two. The last time they met, on 14 Feb 2026, it finished SS Pennarossa 0-3 SS San Giovanni.
Where it pulls both ways. SS Pennarossa are the form side, but the meetings favour SS San Giovanni: in the last ten meetings, SS Pennarossa won three, SS San Giovanni won four and three were drawn.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 71%. Seven of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: SS Pennarossa 2-1 SS San Giovanni (9% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (SS San Giovanni the favourite), an open game.
The league run. SS Pennarossa: up and down in the league (L W L L L). SS San Giovanni: lost their last two league games (L L W L L).
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).