Match details. Campionato Sammarinese, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is Fri 23 Oct, 20:15 Lagos time.
What's at stake. San Marino Academy are 15th on 2 points after 5 games, 1 point behind Pennarossa, level on points with Faetano. A win would take them above Pennarossa. Cosmos Serravalle are 5th on 10 points after 5 games, 2 points behind Tre Fiori, 1 point clear of La Fiorita. A win would take them above Tre Fiori.
Form. San Marino Academy have won none, drawn four and lost six of their last ten league games, 0.4 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L L D D L. Cosmos Serravalle have won four, drawn one and lost one of their last six league games, 2.2 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W W W L D.
The numbers. San Marino Academy score 0.2 and concede 1.8 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and eight games without a goal. Cosmos Serravalle score two and concede 0.7 a game over their last six, with three clean sheets. Cosmos Serravalle average 7.0 shots (2.0 on target), 3.0 corners and 3.5 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last six meetings San Marino Academy have won one, drawn none and lost five. Five of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, San Marino Academy won one and Cosmos Serravalle won three. The last time they met, on 22 Feb 2026, it finished San Marino Academy 0-1 Cosmos Serravalle.
The read. Cosmos Serravalle to win. Cosmos Serravalle are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Cosmos Serravalle; the meetings favour Cosmos Serravalle.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: San Marino Academy 1-2 Cosmos Serravalle (9% chance).
The agreed story. Cosmos Serravalle or the draw, goals in between.
The league run. Cosmos Serravalle: coming out of a defeat with two wins (W W W L D).
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).