Match details. CONCACAF Central American Cup, Semi-finals. Kick-off is Fri 23 Oct, 02:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Nacional Chelato Ucles, Tegucigalpa.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. FC Motagua Tegucigalpa have won three, drawn three and lost none of their last six, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W D D W. Liga Deportiva Alajuelense have won four, drawn one and lost one of their last six, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W L W.
The numbers. FC Motagua Tegucigalpa score 1.8 and concede 0.3 a game over their last six, with four clean sheets. Liga Deportiva Alajuelense score two and concede one a game over their last six, with one clean sheet.
Head to head. In the last three meetings FC Motagua Tegucigalpa have won one, drawn none and lost two. Two of the three went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 1 Oct 2025, it finished FC Motagua Tegucigalpa 1-2 Liga Deportiva Alajuelense.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 52%; two of the last three meetings went over 2.5.
The read. No side to back. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: FC Motagua Tegucigalpa 1-1 Liga Deportiva Alajuelense (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).